Noise : a flaw in human judgment /
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein.
- First edition.
- ix, 454 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 399-438) and index.
Introduction: Two kinds of error -- Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions -- Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise -- Part III. Noise in predictive judgment: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal -- Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise -- Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol -- Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards? -- Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously -- Epilogue: A less noisy world -- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit -- Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer -- Appendix C: Correcting predictions.
Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.