TY  - BOOK
AU  - Silver,Nate
TI  - The signal and the noise: why most predictions fail-- but some don't 
SN  - 9781594204111 (hbk.)
AV  - CB158 .S54 2012
U1  - 519.5/42 23
PY  - 2012///
CY  - New York
PB  - Penguin Press
KW  - Forecasting
KW  - Methodology
KW  - History
KW  - Bayesian statistical decision theory
KW  - Knowledge, Theory of
N1  - Includes bibliographical references and index; A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you
N2  - Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction
ER  -